Retatrutide: 24.2% Phase 2 vs 28.7% company Phase 3?

2026-09-21 10914 views 59 posts

I keep comparing two retatrutide numbers: the Phase 2 efficacy-estimand result of 24.2% mean weight reduction at 48 weeks, and the company-reported Phase 3 results saying up to 28.7%, not yet peer-reviewed. Then I look at completed CTgov trials and see enrollments of 32, 46, and 445, while the larger CTgov trials enrolled 1946 and 2335.

Is the 28.7% actually comparable to the 24.2%, or are different populations and missing-data rules doing a lot of work here? I'm tracking trial methodology more than my own fasting glucose and lipids right now.

The 24.2% is efficacy estimand at 48 weeks. The 28.7% is company-reported, not peer-reviewed. Different handling of discontinuations can move numbers a lot.

Peer reviwe is the whole ballgame for me.

Peer review matters, but the completed CTgov trials are tiny—32, 46, 445. The 1946 and 2335 trials are where I'd look for confirmation.

Trial percentages are like before/after photos: lighting and angles do half the work.

I quit chasing the headline number and tracked 5% milestones every 8 weeks instead. The surprise was weekends: two restaurant meals and a few drinks erased roughly 1,200 calories a day for me.

When I pre-logged Saturday by Friday night and hit 8k steps, Monday was 1.5 lb lower instead of up. So I care more about my week 12 trend than 24 vs 28.

My stall weeks always mach bad sleep, not whatever the trial endpoint says.

I measure waist monthly; the tape moved 4 inches before the scale admitted anything.

Trial size isn't the flex here; 48 weeks versus 68 weeks is the bigger mismatch.

I got nerdy and wrote the week counts on a sticky note, and that flipped my read: 24.2% at 48 weeks versus 28.7% at 68 weeks is a longer runway, not a fair head-to-head. I also looked at who stuck around; if the bigger Phase 3 had more people but also more dropouts counted differently, the 'up to' number can look prettier.

My own scale did the same thing: weeks 1-24 I lost 12 lbs, weeks 25-52 I lost anther 9, but the last 8 lbs took forever because I was traveling and eating out more. So when people quote 28.7 as proof it's stronger, I'd want the completion rate and the actual week mark next to it.

Not saying the medication isn't working, just that those two numbers live in different zip codes.

I weigh daily and only trust the 7-day average. A Friday pizza night can add 3-4 lbs of water by Saturday, then it's gone by Wednesday. If your week 48 and someone else's week 68 are measured on diferent days, you're comparing salt and sleep as much as fat loss. Align the timeline before the number.

Peer review matters, but week 48 versus week 68 matters more to me.

The number I actually track is my belt hole, and here's the weird part: I lost 9 lbs in month one and my waist didn't budge, then dropped 4 lbs the next month and went down two notches. Scale and tape disagree on timing, which is why I stopped sweating whether the real number is 24 or 28.

My hunch on your question is that the bigger trials have far more people who bail early, so if that 28.7% comes from folks who stayed the course, it's not the same animal as a mean across everyone who enrolled. Phase 2 also ran in tight, well-behaved conditions; the big ones get real life.

Either number clears what I need, so I've stopped litigating it.

Two 5-hour nights in a row and my weight jumps 3 lbs overnight. Trial math can wait.

My gym belt is the only tape measure I trust — down three holes since spring and it never lies.

Honestly the number that changed my life wasn't either of those, it was front-loading protein — 40g at breakfast — because that killed my 9pm pantry raids, which were worth maybe 400 calories a night. Run that over 48 weeks and it's real.

I get the urge to chase trial math, but the lever I can actually pull is Sunday meal prep and not letting Friday trn into Fri-Sat-Sun.

24.2 was at 48 weeks; 28.7 might be week 68 or a completer slice — not comparable.

Company PR says 'up to' — that's usually the best slice, not the average.

Just my two cents, I stopped chasing trial headlines and started logging weekly averages. My weight was flat for 5 weeks, then dropped 2.8 lbs the week I cut back on restaurant food.

The scale noise from sodium or a heavy weekend is way bigger than a 4.5-point difference between Phase 2 and Phase 3. Trial data is interesting, but my own 12-week trend tells me more.

If it's not peer-reviewed, I file it next to 'may' and 'up to' in the fine print.