NCT04184622: Why do so many stall at 5 mg?

2026-09-01 6760 views 32 posts

I keep coming back to NCT04184622: 2539 participants, Week 0–Week 72, arms were placebo, 5 mg, 10 mg, and 15 mg. In real-world threads, 5 mg seems to be where a lot of people camp long-term. Is that because side effects, cost, or because it's enough?

I'm not asking for dosing advice—just curious whether the trial design tells us anything about who actually needed higher arms. My own tracking is flat lately, so I’m trying to separate noise from pattern.

The trial had forced dose arms, not real-world self-selection. That alone makes 5 mg look different in forums.

Agreed. Also 2539 people is huge, but if raw data has no outcome numbers, we’re guessing about who plateaued where.

I’ve been on 5 mg for months and it still works for appetite. No plans to move unless my clinician says otherwise.

But that’s the thing—appetite suppression isn’t the only endpoint. Weight, waist, labs all matter. Forums flatten that.

I get why people blame plateaus on the dose, but Week 0–72 is a long run. Bodies change, activity changes, sleep changes, stress changes. I’ve watched my own weekly averages go flat for a month, then drift down again when work stress eased. That’s not a dose story. The trial can’t tell us much about that texture.

What I’d want is better real-world data on maintenance after initial loss, not just arm labels. I'm not saying dose doesn't matter, just that arm labels alone are a blunt tool. The forum pattern might be real, but it might also be selection bias.

What real-world data would even be clean enough?

We need n and time on dose, not vibes.

I thought the 10 and 15 mg arms were about seeing dose-response, not necessarily saying everyone needs them.

Right, and placebo arm matters too. Without it, we forget some stalls are just normal variation.

My take: fourms overrepresent stalls because people doing fine don’t post as much. I’m guilty of that.

I’ve been tracking waist and a favorite pair of jeans since week 8. From week 12 to 20 the scale flatlined, but I lost 1.5 inches off my waist and went down one notch.

If the trial only measured pounds, that’s a “stall” even when body composition is still shifting. So maybe some 5 campers are actually still changing shape.

My stall was a weekend problem, not a medication problem. Friday pizza and Sunday brunch undid Mon–Thu every single time.

The trial wasn’t built to show who needed higher arms—it randomized people to fixed arms and didn’t rescue nonresponders. So the real-world 5 crowd is probably a mix of side effects, cost, and “good enough.” Which tracks with what shows up in these threads: when nausea flattens a gym habit, a 20-minute after-dinner walk is often what gets the scale moving again, without touching anything else.

Water weight gaslit me for two weeks, then I dropped 3 lbs overnight. The scale is a liar, but the trend line isn’t.

Week 19 here and the scale sat on the same 1.5 lbs for six straight weeks — I nearly quit tracking. What actually moved was my belt: two notches in, and a pair of work pants that used to leave marks went from uncomfortable-by-2pm to just normal.

So I switched to measuring my waist at the navel every Sunday instead of weighing daily, and it dropped 3.25 inches across that same flat stretch. The weird part is I'd been calling it failure, but my food log showed the same volume, just different food.

Swapped an afternoon granola-and-yogurt habit for cottage cheese and a fistful of berries and the scale started moving about 10 days later. Not saying that's why, but I think 'stall' covers two very different situations — nothing changing, and things changing where the scale can't see it.

Which one you're in changes what's worth doing next.

I'll be the contrarian here: my plateau months weren't about food at all. Frm roughly month 4 to month 7 I was averaging 5.5 hours of sleep because of a work crunch, and my tracking was clean — around 1,650 calories, 110g protein, 8k steps a day. Flat as a board.

Then the crunch ended, I went back to 7.5 hours, changed literally nothing else, and lost 6 lbs in five weeks. My resting heart rate on my watch dropped 7 bpm in that same window, which is the only objective proof I have that anything was different.

Stress and sleep are the two inputs nobody logs because they don't feel like diet inputs. If your log looks good and you're stuck, look at the eight hours before the log starts.

My tape measure has been more honest with me than my scale all year, and it's not even a smart one.

Nobody warned me the food noise comes back gradually, not all at once. I didn't notice until I caught myself planning dinner at 10am again.

What pulled me out of a flat stretch was boring stuff — 30g protein within an hour of waking and a big salad before anything else at dinner. Four weeks, 5 lbs. Boring beats clever.

The boring variable for me was sleep. I logged it for 14 weeks and my flat stretches clustered on nights I averaged under 6 hours, four of my five stalls landed there. Weeks with 7.5+ I'd drop 1.2 to 1.8 lb changing nothing else. Not saying sleep is magic, but the log made it hard to argue with.